While parliamentary elections are still about a year away, a new poll from Market and Media Research shows a much different result from the 2017 elections, if elections were held today.
As is pretty much always the case, the Independence Party is the strongest-polling party right now, with 25.6% saying they would vote for them if elections were held today. This is within the margin of error for their results in 2017, when they clocked in at 25.2%, and up by about a percentage point from the last poll, taken on September 2nd.
The other two parties in the ruling coalition—the Progressive Party and the Left-Greens, who lead the government—did not fare as well. The Progressives are currently polling at 8.3%; slightly less than where they were for the last poll, but down from 10.7% in 2017. The Left-Greens have seen a sharper decline, and are currently at 8.5%—down from 9.6% from the last poll but also down from 16.9% during the elections, their support effectively now half what it was at that time.
The second strongest show in the poll was made by the Pirate Party, now at 15%, which is up from 14.3% at the last poll and from 9.2% in 2017. Not too far behind them are the Social Democrats, at 12.8% who, while down from their 14.9% position during the previous poll, is also about where they were during the last elections, when they were at 12.1%.
The Centre Party, after dropping to 8% during the last poll, are now within the margin of error of back to where they were in 2017, at 10.8%. Meanwhile, the Reform Party, who got 6.7% during the last elections, are now at 9.4%, down from 10% during the last poll.
The People’s Party, if elections were held today, would likely not get a seat in Parliament at all, as they are now at 3.6%; down from 6.9% in 2017 and from 4.8% during the last poll. However, the Socialist Party—who do not have a seat in Parliament—are making a slightly stronger showing, as they are now at 4.3%, coming up from 3.4% during the last poll.
Support for the ruling coalition as a whole rose slight from the last poll—from 50.1% to 51%—but is still well below their support when they were first formed, when they were at 66.7%. The coalition has not polled higher than 56.2% since that day.
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