Words by

Poppy Askham

@poppy_askham

Photo by

Julia Staples

The latest forecast model produced by the University of Iceland suggests that it is likely that by the end of April there will be no new cases of COVID-19 in Iceland. An updated forecast was released on the University’s website on April 14th following a drop in new infections over the Easter weekend.

The model provides two predictions: a median or ‘probable’ forecast and a pessimistic forecast. The number of new cases recorded daily will drop to an average of 0 by the end of April according to the ‘probable’ forecast. The pessimistic forecast estimates around three to four new cases per day.

University of Iceland COVID-19 forecast model 14/04/20

The predictions are updated by experts at the University of Iceland by changing the data inputted rather than adjusting the formula. The latest forecast is more optimistic than previous versions due to the recent drop in the infection rate in Iceland. Just nine new cases were recorded on April 13th, meaning the infection rate has dropped to its lowest level since March 9th. The daily number of recoveries now outstrips the number of new cases.

The model also predicts the number of people that will need hospital treatment. The number of hospitalisations at any one time was previously expected to peak at between 60 and 90 patients last week, but there are currently only 39 hospitalised COVID-19 patients in Iceland. However, the Director for Health, Alma Möller has warned that the the number of patients in Iceland’s hospitals is likely to increase in the coming weeks, as the hospitalisation rate tends to peak a couple of weeks after the infection rate.

It’s worth bearing in mind that the forecasts are constantly changing to reflect the latest developments in Iceland’s COVID-19 outbreak, so predictions are highly likely to change in the future. But as time passes and more data is collected, the model will become more stable and accurate.

Tune into our daily COVID-Cast for a deeper dive into the day’s developments.

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