From Iceland — COVID-19: More Optimistic Future Predicted By Experts

COVID-19: More Optimistic Future Predicted By Experts

Published March 26, 2020

Sam O'Donnell
Photo by
Julia Staples

Experts at the University of Iceland are predicting a more optimistic future in regards to COVID-19. Vísir reports that according to the new forecast model by the University of Iceland, between 1,500 and 2,300 Icelanders are expected to be diagnosed with COVID-19. This is a much better result than the previous forecast, which was between 2,000 and 6,000 infected.

This number is expected to reach its peak in the first week of April with around 1,200 patients, although it could be as many as 1,600. During the epidemic, it is expected that a maximum number of 160 people will require hospitalisation, with between 60 and 80 people requiring inpatient services at the same time, and around 13 people requiring intensive care.

The most pessimistic outlook predicts that 23 people will require intensive care. The greatest burden on intensive care units will most likely be in the second week of April, when five people are expected to require intensive care, although that number could be up to 11 people.

It is worth noting that this analytical work is ongoing, and that the forecasting model will be updated regularly with new information. It should also be noted that due to the small numbers, the number of diagnosed cases can vary widely from day to day, and therefore affect the model’s results. However, the model does become more stable as time goes on, and so the forecast can become more accurate given time.

Tune into our daily COVID-cast for more on recent coronavirus-related developments in Iceland.

Note: Due to the effect the Coronavirus is having on tourism in Iceland, it’s become increasingly difficult for the Grapevine to survive. If you enjoy our content and want to help the Grapevine’s journalists do things like eat and pay rent, please consider joining our High Five Club.

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