From Iceland — About A 50/50 Chance Of Another Volcanic Eruption

About A 50/50 Chance Of Another Volcanic Eruption

Published January 5, 2022

Photo by
John Pearson

New satellite measurements examined by scientists at the Icelandic Met Office now indicate about a 50% chance that there will be another eruption at Fagradalsfjall, Vísir reports.

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These measurements indicate that the magma chamber under Fagradalsfjall is about 1,500 metres deep, and has risen by about 100 metres over the past five days. Eight days ago, the chamber was believed to be about two kilometres deep, indicating that it is rising at a significant rate.

“It’s come up to about one and a half kilometres deep,” earthquake hazards coordinator at the Icelandic Met Office Kristín Jónsdóttir told reporters. “And this chamber, which appeared in December, is about half the size of the one that appeared in the spring.”

For an idea of what that means, the current magma chamber is estimated to be 18 million cubic metres, while the one that led to last March’s eruption was about 35 million cubic metres. Kristín added that by current estimates, there is now about a 50/50 chance of an eruption, although at the magma chamber’s current volume, it should be considerably less powerful than last spring’s.

As reported, while the earthquake swarm that began in the area on December 21st has since died down, this is very reminiscent of events from last March–as is the telltale land deformation that has been recorded by sensitive GPS instrumentation.

As always, we will keep you apprised of any updates as they arise.

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