A new poll from Gallup shows the relatively new Socialist Party—who as yet do not have a seat in Parliament—polling as high as the Centre Party, which was founded in 2017. With elections coming up on September 25th, there are still a number of different ruling coalitions that could play out for Iceland’s next government.
As RÚV reports, if elections were held today, the Independence Party would win 17 seats in Iceland’s 63-seat Parliament. The Left-Greens would win 10 seats, and the Progressive Party, seven. These parties, which comprise Iceland’s current government, could therefore hold their majority on Parliament, if they so chose to work together.
Amongst opposition parties, the Social Democrats would win seven seats; the Pirate Party would win eight seats; the Reform Party would win six; and both the Centre Party and the Socialist Party would win four seats. The People’s Party would disappear from the legislature.
With all this being the case, there are a few possible new governments that could form after the elections. Apart from the current majority holding, there could also be a coalition comprised of the Independence Party, the Left-Greens and the Pirates. These first two parties may also bring in either the Social Democrats or the Reform Party.
However, both the Social Democrats and the Pirates have publicly stated that they will not form a government that includes the Independence Party, leaving only a coalition of the Independence Party, the Left-Greens and the Reform Party for any other three-party coalition that is not the current one.
Interestingly, a four-party coalition is also possible—without the Independence Party. This would be comprised of the Left-Greens, the Social Democrats, the Progressives and the Pirates. That said, coalitions of more than three parties are unpopular, and this majority would only hold 32 seats, which would make for a razor-thin margin.
For more on who these parties are and what they stand for, visit Grapevine’s parliamentary guide.
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