Polling conducted by Maskína for Stöð 2, Vísir and Bylgjan on the three capital area voting districts—Reykjavík North, Reykjavík South and the Southwest—show a very different Parliament if elections were held now, Vísir reports, bearing in mind that parliamentary elections will be held this autumn, barring unforeseen circumstances.
Polling concerned every party currently in Parliament as well as the Socialist Party, who have a seat on Reykjavík City Council and intend to run for Parliament as well. According to a poll conducted by Maskína from January 12 to January 20, wherein 1,290 people responded, the Socialist Party is currently polling at 5.3%, which clears the threshold for getting seats in Parliament. This would put the total number of parties in Parliament at nine instead of eight.
When looking just at the three capital area districts, greater distinctions arise.
Of those polled in these districts, the Social Democrats came out strongest in Reykjavík North, with 25.7%, followed by the Independence Party (19.6%); the Pirate Party (13.1%); the Leftist-Greens (12.5%); the Reform Party (11.9%); and the Socialist Party (5.1%). The other parties running for this district did not poll high enough to win a seat if elections were held today, i.e. the Progressive Party (4.8%), the People’s Party (3.7%) and the Centre Party (3.6%).
In Reykjavík South, the Independence Party came out on top, with 20.6%, followed by the Social Democrats (17%); the Reform Party (14.6%); the Pirate Party (13.8%); the Leftist-Greens (12.8%); the Socialist Party (6.4%); and the People’s Party (5.5%). As with Reykjavík North, the Centre Party (4.8%) and the Progressives (4.3%) did not poll high enough in this district to win a seat.
In the Southwest district, which encompasses the Reykjavík area municipalities, the Independence Party again came out on top, at 27%, followed by the Reform Party and the Social Democrats, both of whom polled at 15.2%. After these parties came the Leftist-Greens (12%); the Pirate Party (9.3%); the Centre Party (6.8%); and the Progressive Party (6.6%), while the People’s Party polled at 4.7% and the Socialist Party at 3.3%.
All this taken into account, the Progressives would, if elections were held today, lose their last remaining seat in Reykjavík. The Socialist Party would become the ninth party in Parliament, and losses sustained by the ruling coalition—the Leftist-Greens, the Independence Party and the Progressive Party—would swing growing support towards the Social Democrats, the Reform Party and the Socialists.
At these levels, a right-wing ruling coalition would be difficult at best to form, but whatever the outcome, if these numbers bear out through until autumn, a two-party coalition will be all but impossible.
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