Published October 29, 2016
The numbers are still coming in, but the Independence Party has increased slightly in size. The Pirate Party has gone from three seats to nine. Other results show a tumultuous road ahead for forming a possible government.
UPDATE 02:10, four hours after polls closed: With 94,217 votes out of a registry of 246,516, the current results show the following:
Bright Future: 7.2% (4 MPs – Currently has 6)
Progressive Party: 11% (8 MPs – Currently has 19)
Restoration Party: 9.9% (5 MPs – Currently has 0)
Independence Party: 29.9% (21 MPs – Currently has 19)
Pirate Party: 13.6% (9 MPs – Currently has 3)
Social Democrats: 6.4% (4 MPs – Currently has 9)
Left-Greens: 16.4% (11 MPs – Currently has 7)
These are only the results so far, but in Iceland’s 63-seat parliament, the previous coalition of the Independence Party and the Progressive Party appears to be defeated. However, in light of ongoing talks between all opposition parties except the Restoration Party, a possible alliance of the Pirate Party, Left-Greens, Social Democrats and Bright Future would also not have a majority, if these results bore out in the final numbers.
However, a three-way centre-right coalition of the Independence Party, the Progressive Party and the Restoration Party would be able to form a majority. The Independence Party, having the largest share of votes, would be most likely to receive the mandate to form a government.
These results show the Independence Party taking a small upswing in support, the Pirates tripling their numbers, the Left-Greens increasing by 50%, the Progressive Party and the Social Democrats greatly reduced in numbers, and Bright Future losing two MPs. The Restoration Party breaks from past precedent, in that they are newly formed, and have no seats in parliament; new parties usually win three or four seats their first time around.
The turnout has been the worst in Icelandic history, at about 65%.
The last Gallup poll before the elections showed the Independence Party overtaking the Pirate Party, while the Left-Greens and the Restoration Party appeared to be on their way up, as the Social Democrats and Bright Future dropped in support.
The campaign itself has been colorful, and certainly memorable, and the prospect of a Pirate Party takeover attracted the attention of the international media.
The final results may not arrive until many hours from now.