The last Gallup poll before tomorrow’s elections could spell trouble for the Pirate Party, as the conservative Independence Party surges ahead.
RÚV reports that the Independence Party is now polling at 27%, showing an upswing by a few points since the previous poll. The Pirate Party, long speculated to sweep these elections, is now at 17.9%, taking a dip below the 20% mark for the first time in many months.
Where other opposition parties are concerned, the Left-Greens continue their upward trend, and are now at 16.5%. Other opposition parties did not fare as well: the Social Democrats are at 7.4% while Bright Future are at 6.8%.
The results are significant, in that the Pirates, the Left-Greens, the Social Democrats and Bright Future have been in ongoing talks for the past few weeks. These meetings have aimed to find harmony between their respective platforms, in the event the Pirates win the largest share of votes and are given a mandate to form a coalition government.
With the Social Democrats and Bright Future clinging to the chance of getting any seats in parliament, the Left-Greens’ steadily rising in support may not be enough to carry a parliamentary majority – even if the Pirates were ahead of the Independence Party.
At the same time, the Progressive Party is at 9.3% and the newly-formed Restoration Party are at 8.8%. Should the Independence Party’s electoral support match this latest poll, these other two parties are the most likely contenders to form a new (old) coalition.
Elections will be held tomorrow. You can follow the elections on our official Twitter, where we will be livetweeting results and other events as they unfold using the hashtag #SmiteTheVote.