Two New Presidential Polls Show Similar Results - The Reykjavik Grapevine

Two New Presidential Polls Show Similar Results

Published May 26, 2016

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Two new polls on the presidential candidates have just been released in the wake of a third yesterday, all showing very similar results.

According to a new poll from Gallup, Vísir reports, historian Guðni Th. Jóhannesson is the front runner, with 57% saying they would vote for him if elections were held today. 22% said the same of Morgunblaðið co-editor Davíð Oddsson; 10.9% chose author Andri Snær Magnason; and 5.4% said they supported financier Halla Tómasdóttir.

Similarly, a poll conducted by the Social Science Department of the University of Iceland showed 57% supporting Guðni; 22% supporting Davíð; about 12% supporting Andri; and about 5% supporting Halla.

These results are similar to an MMR poll released yesterday, which showed 65.6% saying they supported Guðni. At the same time, only 18.1% said the same of Davíð, up from 3.1% from a previous poll conducted earlier this month. Andri has seen a small upwards blip in support, from 8.8% to 11%, while Halla went from 1.7% to 2.2%.

A closer look at the demographics illustrates how difficult it will be for Davíð to move forward.

Whether by gender, age or geographic location, Guðni has far greater levels of support than Davíð. However, when looking at party affiliation, things look even less promising for Davíð – opposition party voters gave their overwhelming support to Guðni, while their support for Davíð does not break the single-digits. Even more telling, voters for the Independence Party – which Davíð led for about two decades – were almost evenly divided between him and Guðni. Voters for the Progressive Party polled similarly.

As such, Davíð will have to win over more of his ideological allies if he hopes to improve his numbers. With presidential elections exactly one month away as of yesterday, whether or not he will have the time to accomplish that remains to be seen.

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