A new poll shows historian Guðni Th. Jóhannesson still very far ahead of Morgunblaðið co-editor Davíð Oddsson in their bid for the presidency.
According to the results of a poll conducted by Market and Media Research (MMR) which asked respondents who they would vote for if elections were held today, the clear frontrunner remained Guðni, with 65.6% saying they would vote for him. This is up from 59.2% from the last poll, taken in early May.
At the same time, only 18.1% said the same of Davíð, up from 3.1% from the previous poll. Author Andri Snær Magnason has seen a small upwards blip in support, from 8.8% to 11%, while financier Halla Tómasdóttir went from 1.7% to 2.2%.
A closer look at the demographics illustrates how difficult it will be for Davíð to move forward.
Whether by gender, age or geographic location, Guðni has far greater levels of support than Davíð. However, when looking at party affiliation, things look even less promising for Davíð – opposition party voters gave their overwhelming support to Guðni, while their support for Davíð does not break the single-digits. Even more telling, voters for the Independence Party – which Davíð led for about two decades – were almost evenly divided between him and Guðni. Voters for the Progressive Party polled similarly.
As such, Davíð will have to win over more of his ideological allies if he hopes to improve his numbers. With presidential elections exactly one month away from today, whether or not he will have the time to accomplish that remains to be seen.