An international group of scientists is researching the impact of climate change and glacier retreat on seismic activity and volcanic eruptions in Iceland. One hypothesis suggests that up to three times more magma is forming beneath the surface due to glacier retreat — and that this process is already underway, reports RÚV.

The study, part of the ongoing ISVOLC project, led by Michelle Parks from the Icelandic Meteorological Office alongside geophysicist Freysteinn Sigmundsson from the University of Iceland, is examining how Iceland’s changing glaciers could be linked to seismic activity and volcanic eruptions. The ISVOLC project, which began in April 2023 and will span three years, includes 20 scientists from 11 institutions worldwide. Its main goal is to assess how the melting of Iceland’s glaciers affects underground magma systems and to explore possible changes in volcanic and seismic activity. The project will also construct a comprehensive database of Iceland’s glacial changes since 1890, creating high-resolution, 3D time-based models that predict land uplift and magma production as glaciers continue to thin.

According to Freysteinn, modeling suggests that two to three times more magma is forming beneath Iceland now compared to before the glaciers started retreating. To examine this hypothesis, scientists are specifically studying the effects of glacial changes on four volcanic systems: Katla, Askja, Grímsvötn, and Bárðarbunga.

“There is a concerted effort to study the links between glacial changes and volcanic activity,” says Freysteinn, adding that these four volcanoes were chosen is that they are the most active ones lying beneath glaciers in Iceland.