From Iceland — Election Predictions Show Razor-Thin Difference

Election Predictions Show Razor-Thin Difference

Published May 28, 2014

Andie Sophia Fontaine
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A new poll, conducted five days before municipal elections, shows the Social Democrats and Bright Future with a nine-seat majority. Where other parties are concerned, however, the difference in support is as thin as one ballot.

The poll, conducted by Market and Media Research, shows that if elections were held today, the Social Democrats would win about 29.5% of the vote. The party with the second-greatest level of support, Bright Future, would get 24% of the vote. This would equal five seats and four seats, respectively.

The results are similar to the current ruling coalition in Reykjavík city council, where the Best Party – sister party of Bright Future – currently leads the coalition with the Social Democrats.

MMR also calculated that the Independence Party would get 21.1% of the vote, or four seats. At the same time, the Left-Greens are polling at 9% and the Pirates at 8.2%, equaling one seat each. 

While no other party polled high enough to win a seat – the People’s Front of Iceland coming in at 0.2% and Dögun with 2.6% – the Progressives polled at 5.3%. This result has raised questions, as this would normally equate a seat on city council, at the cost of one seat for the Independence Party.

However, as MBL points out, MMR’s calculations were made using only one decimal place. If a second or third decimal place is used, the difference between the Progressives getting a seat or not comes down to about 0.002% – or one vote.

Which just goes to show: one vote really can matter.

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