Words by

Sam O'Donnell

Photo by

Julia Staples

The University of Iceland’s Health Sciences Institute has released a new prediction model, which is also available in English for the first time.

Although the number of infected people has gone down, the prediction model is actually more pessimistic than it was before. This is due to the fact that the method of estimating has improved, which allows for a more realistic estimate of uncertainty from day to day. Thus, the more pessimistic forecast.

This prediction has not changed much since March 25th, but forecasts on the burden the epidemic will take on the health system have risen as the age distribution of diagnosed individuals has changed.

At this time, the prediction model forecasts that between 1,700 and 2,800 individuals will be diagnosed with COVID-19. Of those people, as many as 1,800 could be sick at the same time, and that number will peak in the first week of April.

While the epidemic is ongoing, it is expected that about 120 individuals will need hospitalisation, but that number could reach 200 according to the pessimistic forecast. The greatest burden on health care services due to hospital admissions will be around mid-April, when it is expected that around 60 individuals will be hospitalised, although the pessimistic forecast predicts 100 individuals.

Of the people hospitalised, approximately 25 will require intensive care, although that number could be as high as 44. During the time of heaviest burden on health care, up to 18 people could require intensive care.

As always, the analytical work continues, and the prediction model will be updated regularly to reflect any new data. Because Iceland is such a small country, the number of confirmed cases can vary greatly from day to day, which will affect the prediction model. As time passes, however, the model will become more stable.

As ever, those looking for more information or advice should go to the Icelandic Government’s excellent COVID-19 help page.

Tune into our daily COVID-Cast for a deeper dive into the day’s developments.

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