The office of President of Iceland is a peculiar one. When Iceland won independence in 1944 the constitution the Dane’s had given their colony a few years earlier was hardly amended. The word “King” was simply crossed out and replaced by “President.” Just like the king, the future sovereign of Iceland, though elected, would be purely ceremonial, holding no political powers whatsoever.
Since a president would not be born into the role, some articles were also added to the constitution on how to elect the president and laying out the minor qualifications for a candidate. These qualifications turned out to be: 35 years of age, Icelandic and that at least 1500 people had commended the person to run for office, in writing. Lastly, the elections would only have one round, not two, so whoever wins, can do so with a rather low percentage of the vote. Where these matters are concerned, the constitution has not been changed since.
In 2004, Ólafur then shook up the Icelandic constitution by refusing to sign a new law, which shattered the previous assumptions held about the constitutional power of the president. So the sovereign/figurehead/retiree turns out to potentially be something else.
Somehow, this did not trigger constitutional reform. However, it did open up questions about what else a president might have the power to do.
This remains to be seen, because — as tends to happen with constitutional law — whenever somebody holding office thinks of trying to do something previously thought illegitimate, it might actually become legitimate only by the merit of the president having done that thing. These things include stuff like giving people exceptions from the laws, granting them amnesty and so on.
Sitting president Guðni Th. Jóhannesson has not done any experimentation with the powers of the office. Though very popular, he also kind of appeared out of nowhere in 2016, when he was frequently on national television commentating on the ongoing political crisis of April 2016, in which then prime minister Sigmundur Davíð Gunnlaugsson was forced to step down amid being named in the Panama Papers scandal. Because of the simple fact that he was there, that he was articulate and knowledgeable about the office of the president, being a Professor of history at the University of Iceland, he ran and was elected that same spring.
With only 1,500 commendations required to run — even though the population has more than doubled since 1944 — almost anyone who’s willing to put the hours in, can run for office. Given that there are enough candidates, this means that a candidate with a low share of the vote can become head of state. Maybe it’s time to change the constitution, but that somehow hasn’t happened yet. You can ask the former prime minister Katrein Jakobsdóttir about that — she abandoned ship at Alþingi to run for president and, being the most recent person in a position to do something about the constitution, she must have something to say on the subject.
Back to the matter at hand
The 2024 presidential elections are just around the corner. With 11 people on the ballot, it is looking like the 1980 election all over again. It’s quite likely that the winner will move into Bessastaðir having secured just 25% to 35% of the vote.
The polls so far indicate there are two classes of candidates: The below 10 percenters and the above 10 percenters. In the latter category there are four candidates.
There is the former prime minister Katrín, 48, who held that office from 2017. While many expected her entry into the race to make it a non-competition, that has not been the case. It seems that many people don’t think this shift from prime minister to president is an appropriate maneuver. There is also the fact that she’s thought to have been rather ineffective as prime minister, getting little else done than holding the tumultuous coalition together.
Strangely also, as the long time head of the only nominally socialist party in Iceland, polls indicate that the richer you are, the likelier you are to want to vote Katrín for president, meaning that the core voting base that got her into Alþingi is no longer interested in what she’s selling. It is hard to argue, however, that she would not be competent as president, since as prime minister she has been able to be rather undisputed and popular, while saying little and doing less — a more fitting attribute for the presidency.
Next up is University of Iceland political science professor Baldur Þórhallsson, 56. Baldur is best known to the voting public as a political commentator and because he ran for parliament as a member of the Social Democrats in 2009. Otherwise he seems to lack the charisma of his long time partner Felix Bergsson, causing voters to have a hard time imagining him as the country’s head of state.
Comedian and former mayor of Reykjavík Jón Gnarr, 57, has perhaps the most interesting and diverse CV of the front runners. Perhaps to many people’s surprise, he proved to be a competent mayor from 2010 and 2014. Apart from the fact that the guy is funny, he’s also a good talker and has great charisma. Yet, many people seem to think he’s not “serious” enough for the prestigious job as the head of state, which could spell his doom in this race.
The last candidate in the major league is the almost completely unknown Halla Hrund Logadóttir, 43. For the voters, her main appeal seems to be the fact that she is not one of the other three frontrunners. While her career has been distinguished — for the past years she’s served as the head of Iceland’s National Energy Regulatory and previously held a teaching position at Harvard — it’s still a rather brief career and she’s by far the least known front-running candidate.
All in all, it is likely that any of these four candidates would probably do a good enough job as president. None of them seem very likely to test the office’s constitutional limits, which is probably a good thing, both because that was never supposed to be the president’s job and because of the political uncertainty such maneuvers would create.
Yet, while those who hold the office only really have to be able to do two things (smile and wave), it is safe to say that it’s time to get the constitution up to date. It’s also time to encourage better candidates to run for the presidency (or any office, for that matter) — but maybe in a country of 380,000 people that is too much to ask.
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