A new poll from Market and Media Research shows the Pirate Party continuing its downward trend since last March, while the Independence Party has now managed to edge into first place.
According to the results, the Independence Party is now in the top spot, with 24.6% of respondents saying they would vote for the party if parliamentary elections were held today. Following close behind are the Pirates, at 22.4%, but the two parties were in opposite positions during the last poll.
Where other parties are concerned, the Left-Greens are the second largest opposition party, at 12.4%, while ruling coalition partners (with the Independence Party) the Progressive Party are at 10.6%, showing a small uptick in support between polls. The Social Democrats have also risen slightly between polls, to 9.1%, edging out the new centre-right party Viðreisn, who saw a small decline and are now at 8.8%. Bright Future is currently facing the very real possibility of losing their parliamentary seats, polling now at 4.5%.
As reported, parliamentary elections will in all likelihood be held on October 29. As it stands now, the only two parties that could form a two-party coalition are the Pirates and the Independence Party, but before that can happen, they would need to agree on a common platform. This may prove difficult, as the parties are diametrically opposed on a number of issues, with some Pirate MPs going so far as to rule out any partnership between them.
The Pirates themselves may have rocky times ahead. While resting in the far lead for over a year, they have been trending steadily downwards since last March. This latest poll marks the first time since March 2015 that the Independence Party has polled at a higher level of support than them.