The Left-Greens have seen a significant upswing in support, while the party leading the country has fallen well into the single digits.
According to a new poll conducted on May 9 by Fréttablaðið, Stöð 2 and Vísir, parliament would look very different from the way it does now if elections were held today. Levels of support for the different parliamentary parties now show three possible ruling coalitions.
Only two parties rose in support from the previous poll, taken at the start of this month: the Independence Party and the Left-Greens. Between polls, the former went from 29.9% to 31.1%, showing only a small change in support, while the latter went from 14% to 19.8%.
The ruling coalition leaders, the Progressives, did not fare as well, going from 8.3% to 6.5% between polls, and this is also vastly different from their numbers on Election Day 2013, when they were at 24.43%.
The Pirate Party, despite going from 31.8% to 30.3% between polls, is still the highest-polling party in the opposition. The Social Democrats, however, went from 8.4% to 7.4% between polls, and Bright Future went from 4% to 3.1%.
If elections were held today, this would give three possible two-party coalitions. The Independence Party and the Pirates, for example, could form a coalition with a 41-seat majority in Iceland’s 63-seat parliament. A majority involving the Left-Greens would not be as overwhelming, but still significant: the Left-Greens and the Pirates would have a 33-seat majority, while Left-Greens and the Independence Party would have 34 seats – however, party leadership from both parties have been resistant at best to the idea of forming a coalition together.
Parliamentary elections are supposed to happen this autumn, but a definitive date has not yet been set.