Incumbent Ólafur Ragnar Grímsson and challenger Þóra Arnórsdóttir remain far ahead of any other presidential candidate, but there are some distinct demographic differences in their support.
According to a new poll from Gallup – which was conducted during the first week of June, around the same time as the presidential debates – Ólafur is currently with the support of 45.8% of respondents, while Þóra has 39.3%. Far behind in third is Ari Trausti Guðmundsson, with 9.2%. Everyone else running ranked under 3%.
Support for the two front-runners appears sharply divided demographically. Ólafur has the most support from conservatives and Progressives, while Þóra has the most support from Social Democrats and Leftist-Greens. Support for Ólafur increases the older the voters get, while young people show greater support for Þóra. There are even geographic differences – people living in the countryside are more likely to support Ólafur, while capital-area residents show greater support for Þóra. She also has more support from those who have completed a university degree than Ólafur does.
The single-digit margin between the two already spells what could be a close race, but contributing to this is the fact that the respondent percentage was only 61% – 13% did not yet have an opinion on who they would vote for president, 4% said they would either submit a blank ballot or not vote at all, and 1% said they intended to vote for someone other than the available choices. Winning over the undecideds and disenchanted could mean the difference between victory or defeat for Ólafur and Þóra.