Less than a month from election day, a poll shows the Social Democrats
and the Leftist-Greens with enough support to form a majority coalition
of government. Conducted by the newspaper Fréttablaðið, it showed that support for the Social Dems leads at 31.7%. While the Conservatives saw a modest raise from two weeks ago, from 26.9% to 29.1%, putting them in second, the Leftist-Greens took a significant gain during the same period, from 21.7% to 25.8%. Also during this same period, the Progressives dropped fast, from 12.3% to 7.5%. The Liberal Party rests at 1.8% – not enough for a seat in parliament – while the newly-formed Citizen’s Movement could have an MP this spring, as they now poll at 2.7%. Another new party, L-listinn, is at 1.2%.
According to these numbers, this would translate into 21 MPs for the Social Dems and 17 for the Leftist-Greens. This would give them a combined total of 38 of parliament’s 63 seats, giving them a solid majority. The Conservatives would have 20 MPs while the Progressives would have five. This would put the two parties in the opposition together less than two years from when they held a majority coalition together, which ended after elections in 2007.
800 Icelanders were phoned for the poll, with a response rate of 70.1%