If current polling numbers are any indication, none of the crop of new political parties are expected to win a seat in parliament next spring.
According to the latest Gallup poll, the Independence Party continues to be the most widely supported party in country, with 36%, although this is a decline of one percent from last month. At the same time, both the Progressive and the Leftist-Greens have seen a modest bump in support, with 13.8% and 13.3%, respectively, reflecting a rise in support of about one percent each. The Social Democrats remain about where they were last month, at just under 21%.
Late 2011 to early 2012 saw numerous new political parties appear, with some of them even showing promise as contenders. That now appears to have been part of a passing fad.
Four new parties – Bright Future, Dawn, Rightist Greens and Solidarity – are hoping to win seats in parliament. To win a seat, a party needs at least 5% of the vote. However, the strongest showing of any of these four new parties comes from Bright Future, which is only polling at 4.5%. Dawn has just under 4%, and both the Rightist Greens and Solidarity are at 3%. As such, none of these parties will win a seat in parliament if their numbers continue at this level.
On a related note, support for the ruling coalition has been on the rise for the fourth month in a row, and now stands at 34%.