The results of a new Capacent poll show that current president Ólafur Ragnar Grímsson is not in as secure a position for re-election as one might think, says a professor of political science.
RÚV reports that the poll, conducted by Capacent on behalf of an organisation called A Better Choice At Bessastaðir, referring to the residence of the president, shows that only one-third of respondents intend to vote for the current president in elections this year. However, following behind are three women: journalist Þóra Arnórsdóttir, journalist Elín Hirst and philosopher Salvör Nordal. None of these three have ruled out running for president, although Salvör said she is waiting to see if presidential elections will be held alongside a public referendum on the new constitution.
Gunnar Helgi Kristinsson, a professor of political science at the University of Iceland, said that this shows the president is not guaranteed a victory this election season. “Although Ólafur has been president a long time, and everyone knows the work he does, he is far from safely winning in the next elections,” he said.
However, it is still difficult to measure the precise chances of the potential candidates, as so few have offered to step forward with their candidacy. “In reality, the poll doesn’t disclose much apart from Ólafur Ragnar’s position. If he had received at least 50% as the first choice, then he’d be in a good position. But with only a third, you could say that under certain conditions, he could be in real danger.”