Support For Coalition Parties Decreases, Social Democratic Alliance Looms Large

A new survey conducted by Maskína for news outlet Vísir suggests paints an interesting picture of Iceland’s political landscape, with the Social Democratic Alliance (Samfylkingin) currently polling highest at 25% — a decrease from their massive 30.9% approval rate in April 2024.

The survey also found that more people would vote for the Centre Party (Miðflokkurinn) than the Independence Party (Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn) if an election were to be held today. The Independence Party amassed the most votes in the 2021 Alþingi elections. The Centre Party, led by Wintris-scandalist Sigmundur Davíð Gunnlaugsson, is polling at 17% — tripling since the last elections.

All three coalition government parties have lost significant support since 2021. If votes were cast today, the Progressive Party (Framsóknarflokkurinn) would receive 7.6%; the Independence Party 13.4%; and the Left-Greens 3.7%. The minimum electorate threshold needed to gain a seat at Alþingi is 5%.

The ruling coalition would only secure 14 MPs out of the 32 needed for a majority.

Vísir/Maskína

Aside from the Social Dems and the Liberal Reform Party, which measures 11.3%, the rest of the opposition parties are each polling below 10%. The Pirate and People’s parties poll at 8.5% and 8.8%, respectively, while the Socialist Party would amass 4.7% of votes.

Parliamentary elections are scheduled for autumn 2025.