Eruption Likely At The End Of The Month

Ground uplift at the Sundhnúkar crater row has slowed. However, the likelihood of a magma intrusion or even a volcanic eruption is still expected to increase around the end of January or early February, reports RÚV.

Despite the recent slowdown, experts say that the risk of volcanic activity remains unchanged. According to a statement from the Icelandic Met Office, the chances of a magma intrusion and potential eruption are still anticipated to rise towards late January or early February.

The statement notes that GPS measurements indicate a slight slowdown in the uplift rate in recent weeks. However, it cautions that interpreting individual GPS data points can be misleading. Seasonal interference at this time of year causes greater day-to-day variability due to weather conditions.

“Instead, it is necessary to examine measurements over a longer period, which continue to show ongoing uplift. The sequence of events is still fully underway and is developing very similarly to the lead-up to previous eruptions. According to model calculations, the volume of magma beneath Svartsengi will reach the lower threshold around the end of January or the beginning of February,” the statement reads.

Since the last eruption ended on December 9, seismic activity has been most pronounced around Trölladyngja and, to a lesser extent, Fagradalsfjall, with minimal activity detected near Sundhnúkur and Svartsengi.