Statistics Iceland Predicts Population To Reach 476,000 By 2070

Statistics Iceland (Hagstofa) has published a population forecast for Iceland’s future.

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Their forecast features a high prediction, low prediction, and medium prediction. As can be seen, they Hagstofa expects Iceland’s population to reach 476,152 by 2070. On the high end, however, Iceland could cross the half million mark by as early as 2040, while on the low end, the population may peak at just under 387,000 in 2038 and begin to decline from there.

In addition, Hagstofa also issued predictions on immigration to Iceland, saying, "[f]or the medium and high variants, positive net migration of foreign nationals will more than outweigh the decrease due to negative net migration of Icelandic nationals."

In terms of demographics, Iceland will continue its current ageing trend. "By 2043, 20% of the population will be older than 65 years and by 2061 the proportion will be above 25%," Hagstofa predicts. "After 2049, the older age population (over 65 years) will become more numerous than the younger (less than 20 years old)."

That said, "[a]lthough the population is ageing and the population growth is rather slow, the Icelandic population is and will continue to be younger than the population in the EU countries on average. For instance, the percentage of 0 to 15 years olds in Iceland will be above 16% the whole period of 2021-2070, according to the medium projection variant while the proportion is less than 15% in the EU countries. Older persons (aged 65 or over) already had a 20.6% share of the EU population in 2020, while in Iceland this proportion will not reach 20% until 2043."