Days Before Election, Poll Aggregate Reflects Uncertainty

A new poll aggregate from Kjarninn asks more questions than it answers, but big changes are most certainly in store.

The poll bases its results on numerous polls conducted in Iceland on this Saturday’s elections. This latest poll is divided by voting districts, indicating the likelihood of particular candidates getting a seat in parliament.

Looking solely at candidates who have a 50/50 shot at parliament or better, the total number of seats for each party break down as follows:

Progressive Party: 5 seats
Independence Party: 17 seats
Restoration Party: 7 seats
Pirate Party: 12 seats
Left-Greens: 9 seats
Social Democrats: 4 seats
Bright Future: 4 seats

This then shows 58 seats in parliament with a greater than 50% chance of being occupied. However, Iceland’s parliament has 63 seats, leaving five seats in a state of uncertainty.

At the same time, how parties are trending gives us some clue as to where those seats could go:

What this graph shows is that while the Independence Party has been ahead of the Pirate Party for the past month, the former’s numbers are declining while the Pirates are on the way back up. The Left-Greens have been taking a steep and rapid climb upwards, while other parties have either held steady or seen a small dip in support.

Parliamentary elections will be held this Saturday.

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