New Poll: Government Fallen, Large Swings In Party Support

A new poll conducted by Prósent for Fréttablaðið shows that if elections were held today, the current ruling coalition–led by the Left-Greens with the Independence Party and the Progressive Party–would not win enough seats to hold a majority. Some opposition parties have seen a significant rise in support.

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As it stands now, the ruling coalition has 38 of Parliament’s 63 seats; the Left-Greens have eight, the Independence Party has 17, and the Progressives have 13. According to a poll conducted from April 13th through April 26th, which contacted 3,500 people for a response rate of 50.3%, all of these parties have lost enough support to lose their majority.

The Independence Party took the biggest hit, going from 24.4% in last autumn’s elections to 17.9% today, which would take them from 17 seats to 12. The Left-Greens went from 12.6% to 9.6% during this same period, taking them from eight seats to six, and the Progressives went from 17.3% to 12.4%, taking them from 13 seats to eight. In total, this would give the coalition 26 seats, and as such would lose their majority if elections were held today.

It was quite a different story with a few opposition parties. Both the Pirate Party and the Social Democrats gained by 7% from last autumn’s elections, going from 8.8% to 16.2% and 9.9% to 16.8%, respectively. The Pirates would then go from six seats to 11 and the Social Democrats from six seats to 12 if elections were held today.

The Reform Party, going from 8.3% to 9.6%, would gain a seat, going from five seats to six, and the Socialist Party, which did not win any seats in last autumn’s election, is currently polling at 5.4% and would win three seats. At the same time, the People’s Party and the Centre Party saw losses, going from six seats to five and two seats to zero, respectively.

As such, were elections held today, Iceland’s next government would likely look very different from its current form. That said, parliamentary elections are still just shy of four years away, barring any political scandals that cause a collapse of government. Municipal elections, on the other hand, are coming up on May 14th, and you may be entitled to vote–more information on that here.