MMR: Current Government Would Fall If Elections Were Held Today

The ruling coalition—led by the Left-Greens with the support of the Independence Party and the Progressive Party—enjoys the support of the majority of Icelandic voters, but would still not win enough seats to comprise a majority in Parliament if elections were held today, according to a new poll conducted by MMR for Morgunblaðið. Nine parties would win seats in Parliament, though, up from the current eight.

According to the data of the poll, conducting from July 8th to 14th, 55% of respondents said that they support the current ruling coalition. However, support for each of the parties in the coalition, combined, totals 48.2%, which translates to 31 of Parliament’s 63 seats.

The Left-Greens are currently polling at 10.7%, which would make for seven seats, thereby losing two. The Independence Party has the support of 24.6% of respondents, going up by one seat to 17, while the Progressives hold steady at 12.9%, equaling the same eight seats they currently have.

The People’s Party, the Centre Party, and the Socialist Party are currently polling well enough—at around 6%—to each get a person in Parliament. This would be a loss of one for the People’s Party, a loss of eight for the Centre Party, and a gain of one for the Socialists, as they do not as yet have an MP.

Meanwhile, three other opposition parties are showing more promising results. The Social Democrats have 13.1%, going up by one seat to nine; the Pirate Party is at 12.2%, also taking them up by one seat to eight; and the Reform Party’s 9.4% showing would gain them two seats, taking them to six.

The grand total of seats does not include so-called jöfnunarþingmenn, MPs who are brought into Parliament through a complex calculation of seats against votes in select voting districts to fill gaps left in Parliament.

All this being the case, if these same or similar numbers bear out in parliamentary elections this autumn, forming a government could prove challenging—at least four parties would be needed to form a ruling coalition, and the Independence Party would need to be included in any configuration to form a majority.

For more on who these parties are and what they stand for, check out our handy elections guide.

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