Gallup: Current Government Holding By Slimmest Possible Majority

There have been some significant shifts in party support between August and September, according to a new poll from Þjóðarpúls Gallup, RÚV reports. Amongst these is that the current ruling coalition—comprised of the Left-Greens, the Independence Party and the Progressive Party—would hold onto their majority if elections were held today, but only by the thinnest possible margin.

According to the results, the Independence Party is polling at 22% (15 seats)—nearly twice that of the party with the next-highest level of support, the Progressives, who are at 12.9% (nine seats). The Left-Greens are at 11.8% (eight seats). All told, this would mean 32 seats in Iceland’s 63-seat Parliament—still a majority, but a very thin one that could be broken by just one MP from any of these parties deciding to leave the parliamentary party, which is far from unheard of.

The Pirates and the Social Democrats continue to be the strongest showers amongst opposition parties, and are nearly tied at 11.4% and 11% respectively. They would each win seven seats in Parliament. The Reform Party is currently at 9.9%, which would get them six seats if elections were held today.

The Socialist Party—which does not as yet have a seat in Parliament but began campaigning for the elections this year—is making a strong showing at 7.8%. While almost on even keel with the Centre Party, who are at 7.6%, they have outpaced the People’s Party, who are at 4.9%. Both the Socialists and the Centrists would win five seats if elections were held today, while the People’s Party would win one—something practically unheard of in Icelandic parliamentary politics.

For more on who these parties are and what they stand for, check out our handy political guide. Parliamentary elections will be held on September 25th.

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