Gallup: Significant Movement In Party Support Days Before Election Day

A Þjóðarpúls Gallup poll conducted for RÚV from September 13th to 19th shows that the ruling coalition—led by the Left-Greens with the Independence Party and the Progressive Party—would only win 30 of the 63 seats in Iceland’s Parliament if elections were held today. The results also show that a three-party coalition may be exceedingly difficult to form.

According to the results, the Independence Party still enjoys the highest level of support, with 21.2% of respondents saying they would vote for them if elections were held today. The Left-Greens came in at 10.2%, and the Progressives got 13.2%.

Amongst opposition parties, the Social Democrats make the strongest showing, at 12.7%. Followed close behind is the Pirate Party, at 11.5%; the Reform Party at 10.2%; the People’s Party at 7% and the Centre Party at 6.2%. Meanwhile, the Socialist Party, who do not as yet have a seat in Parliament, came out at 7.3%.

In terms of parliamentary seats, these percentages break down as such:

Independence Party: 15 seats
Left-Greens: 6 seats
Progressives: 9 seats
Social Democrats: 8 seats
Pirate Party: 7 seats
Reform Party: 6 seats
People’s Party: 4 seats
Centre Party: 4 seats
Socialist Party: 4 seats

If these results bear out on election day, which will be held this Saturday, September 25th, forming a new coalition government will prove challenging, to say the least.

A two-party ruling coalition will be impossible. A three-party coalition would be possible if comprised of the Independence Party, the Progressives and the Social Democrats, but the Social Democrats have gone on record saying they will refuse to be a party of any ruling coalition with the Independence Party. A four-party coalition is more possible, but only with the involvement of the Independence Party. As such, the only way Iceland’s next government will not involve the Independence Party will be through a coalition of at least five parties, if these poll results are reflected on election day.

For more on who these parties are, what their platforms are, and information on how to vote, refer to our handy election guide.

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