Poll: Socialists See Boosted Support, Ruling Coalition Weakening

The results of a new poll from Maskína show some very interesting results, Vísir reports. Amongst these is that the Socialist Party—which does not as yet have a seat in Parliament but will run in this autumn’s parliamentary elections—is polling higher than two existing opposition parties. Meanwhile, the ruling coalition of the Left-Greens, the Independence Party and the Progressive Party would lose their majority if elections were held today.

The Independence Party, as almost always, is still showing the greatest level of support, coming in at 20.9% as of July 21st. However, this is down from 23.8% last month and by 25.4% during the 2017 elections. The Left-Greens declined from 15% to 14.1% between polls, and the Progressives went from 11.4% to 9.9%.

As such, if elections were held today, these three parties would only win 30 seats in Iceland’s 63-seat Parliament.

Meanwhile, in the opposition, the Social Democrats are polling strongest, having gone from 12.4% to 13.7% between polls. The Reform Party is holding steady between polls at 12.3%; the Pirate Party went from 11.6% to 12.7%; the Centre Party remained virtually unchanged, going from 5% to 5.5%; and the People’s Party went from 4.5% to 4.2%.

The Socialist Party, having gone from 4.3% to 6.3% between polls, now outpaces those latter two parties.

In terms of what this means in terms of seats won in Parliament, the Independence Party would win 14 seats if elections were held today; the Left-Greens would win nine, as would both the Social Democrats and the Pirates. The Reform Party would win eight seats; the Progressives, seven; the Socialists, four; and the Centre Party, three. The People’s Party would not win a seat in Parliament.

Since a simple majority is needed to form a coalition government, there are a few possibilities that could play out:

1. The current ruling coalition brings the Reform Party into the fold, comprising 38 seats in all.
2. A coalition of the Left-Greens, the Social Democrats, the Pirates and the Reform Party, comprising 35 seats.
3. A coalition of the Left-Greens, the Social Democrats, the Progressives and the Reform Party, comprising 33 seats.
4. A coalition of the Independence Party, the Left-Greens, the Reform Party and the Centre Party, comprising 34 seats.
5. A five-party coalition comprising the current ruling coalition with the support of the Social Democrats and the Pirates, comprising 39 seats. This configuration is probably the least likely of all.

What stands out in these results is that not even a three-party coalition is possible. Some coalitions are possible without the Independence Party, which is very unusual. The Left-Greens appear to be a in a key position, capable of aligning themselves in virtually any possible coalition.

For more on who these parties are and where they stand, check out our handy political party guide.

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