Larger Eruption Expected With Short Notice

According to an interview with geophysicist Freysteinn Sigmundsson on RÚV, there is increasing uncertainty about the warning time for the next eruption on the Reykjanes Peninsula. The eruption could happen at any time.

Freysteinn specifically points to the Sundhnúkur crater row, where recent activity suggests an eruption is imminent. “There is more uncertainty in this forecast now regarding when the next eruption will occur because the changes are happening more slowly,” he told RÚV.

Measurements and other observations are now subject to greater uncertainty than in previous eruptions.  Today, scientists are closely analysing the latest GPS data, which indicate land subsidence — an important sign of magma movement. While the exact timing remains unknown, there is no indication that an eruption will be avoided. Based on the patterns of previous eruptions, this one could be significant, and the warning time is expected to be short.

“It might be easier to predict when an eruption is unlikely in the immediate aftermath of seismic activity. That period has now passed,” Freysteinn said.

Whether the eruption happens today, this week, or later this month all falls within the timeframe scientists are considering.

Follow the Grapevine’s ongoing volcano coverage.